Risk of Injury-Related Readmission Varies by Initial Presenting-Hospital Type Among Children at High Risk for Physical Abuse.

OBJECTIVES: Children experiencing physical abuse may initially present to hospitals with underappreciated minor injuries, only to experience more severe injuries in the future. The objectives of this study were to 1) describe young children presenting with high-risk diagnoses for physical abuse, 2) characterize the hospitals to which they initially presented, and 3) evaluate associations of initial presenting-hospital type with subsequent admission for injury. METHODS: Patients aged younger than 6 years from the 2009-2014 Florida Agency for Healthcare Administration database with high-risk diagnoses (codes previously associated with >70% risk of child physical abuse) were included. Patients were categorized by the hospital type to which they initially presented: community hospital, adult/combined trauma center, or pediatric trauma center. Primary outcome was subsequent injury-related hospital admission within 1 year. Association of initial presenting-hospital type with outcome was evaluated with multivariable logistic regression, adjusting for demographics, socioeconomic status, preexisting comorbidities, and injury severity. RESULTS: A total of 8626 high-risk children met inclusion criteria. Sixty-eight percent of high-risk children initially presented to community hospitals. At 1 year, 3% of high-risk children had experienced subsequent injury-related admission. On multivariable analysis, initial presentation to a community hospital was associated with higher risk of subsequent injury-related admission (odds ratio, 4.03 vs level 1/pediatric trauma center; 95% confidence interval, 1.83-8.86). Initial presentation to a level 2 adult or combined adult/pediatric trauma center was also associated with higher risk for subsequent injury-related admission (odds ratio, 3.19; 95% confidence interval, 1.40-7.27). CONCLUSIONS: Most children at high risk for physical abuse initially present to community hospitals, not dedicated trauma centers. Children initially evaluated in high-level pediatric trauma centers had lower risk of subsequent injury-related admission. This unexplained variability suggests stronger collaboration is needed between community hospitals and regional pediatric trauma centers at the time of initial presentation to recognize and protect vulnerable children.

Direct Versus Indirect Query Performance of ICD-9/-10 Coding to Identify Anaphylaxis.

BACKGROUND: Anaphylaxis is an often under =diagnosed, severe allergic event for which epidemiological data are sporadic. Researchers have leveraged administrative and claims data algorithms to study large databases of anaphylactic events; however, little longitudinal data analysis is available after transition to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-10-CM). OBJECTIVE: Study longitudinal trends in anaphylaxis incidence using direct and indirect query methods. METHODS: Emergency department (ED) and inpatient data were analyzed from a large state health care administration database from 2011 to 2020. Incidence was calculated using direct queries of anaphylaxis ICD-9-CM and ICD-10-CM codes and indirect queries using a symptom-based ICD-9-CM algorithm and forward mapped ICD-10-CM version to identify undiagnosed anaphylaxis episodes and to assess algorithm performance at the population level. RESULTS: An average of 2.4 million inpatient and 7.5 million ED observations/y were analyzed. Using the direct query method, annual ED anaphylaxis cases increased steadily from 1,454 (2011) to 4,029 (2019) then declined to 3,341 in 2020 during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In contrast, inpatient cases remained relatively steady, with a slight decline after 2015 during the ICD version transition, until a significant drop occurred in 2020. Using the indirect queries, anaphylaxis cases increased markedly after the ICD transition year, especially involving drug-related anaphylaxis. CONCLUSIONS: Nontypical drug associations with anaphylaxis episodes using the ICD-10-CM version of the algorithm suggest poor performance with drug-related codes. Further, the increased granularity of ICD-10-CM identified potential limitations of a previously validated symptom-based ICD-9-CM algorithm used to detect undiagnosed cases.

Disparities in Demographics and Outcomes Based on Trauma Center Ownership.

INTRODUCTION: Ownership may influence trauma center (TC) location. For-profit (FP) TCs require a favorable payor mix to thrive, whereas not-for-profit (NFP) centers may rely on government funding, grants, and patient volume. We hypothesized that the demographics of trauma patients would be different for NFP and FP TCs due to ownership type. We also hypothesized that these demographic differences might be associated with outcomes such as length of stay, reported complications, and mortality. METHODS: We used the Florida Agency for Health Care Administration (AHCA) 2016-2017 inpatient dataset to examine differences in outcomes by trauma center ownership type. Negative binomial and logistical regression was used to compare trauma ownership, length of stay (LOS), reported complications, and mortality of severely injured nonelderly adult trauma patients. RESULTS: Our study analyzed risk factors and outcomes for 10,700 trauma alert patients. Patients treated at FP TCs were less likely to be Black (OR 0.70, 95% CI: 0.62-0.78), to be uninsured (OR 0.40, 95% CI 0.36-0.45), have Medicare (OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.43-0.66), or Medicaid (OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.50-0.65) (all P < 0.001). Patients treated at FP centers were less likely to have comorbidities (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.82-0.96) and were associated with a longer LOS (0.10, 95% 0.05-0.15, P < 0.001) in nonelderly adult trauma patients. FP TCs were associated with fewer reported complications (OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.74-0.94) and were associated with a higher likelihood of mortality in nonelderly adults (OR 1.70, 95% CI 1.35-2.12, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Among this cohort of severe International Classification of Diseases-based injury severity score (ICISS) patients, complications were less likely, but LOS and mortality were increased among FP TC patients. FP centers cared for fewer patients who were Black, uninsured, or who were Medicare/Medicaid/noncommercial insurance.

The International Classification of Disease Critical Care Severity Score demonstrates that pediatric burden of injury is similar to that of adults: Validation using the National Trauma Databank☆.

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: Resource-based severity of injury (SOI) measures, such as the International Classification of Disease (ICD) Critical Care Severity Score (ICASS), may characterize traumatic burden better than standard mortality-based measures. The purpose of this study was to validate the ICASS in a representative national-level trauma cohort and compare SOI measures between children and adults. METHODS: The National Trauma Databank was used to derive (2008-12) and validate (2013-15) ICASS and ICD Injury Severity Scores (ICISS, standard mortality-based SOI measure). SOI metrics and outcomes were compared between pediatric, adult, and elderly age groups. Logistic regression modeling evaluated predictors of critical care resource utilization. RESULTS: Derivation and validation cohorts consisted of 3.90 and 1.97 million patients, respectively. ICASS strongly predicted actual critical care utilization (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.04-1.04, p<0.0001). Mean ICASS was 24.4 for children and 33.0 for adults (ratio 0.74), indicating predicted critical care utilization in children was three-quarters that of adults. In contrast, predicted pediatric mortality was less than half that of adults. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality-based SOI measures underestimate pediatric burden of injury. This study validates ICASS and demonstrates that pediatric resource-based SOI is more similar to that of adults. ICASS is easily calculated without a trauma registry and complements mortality-based measures. Level of evidence III, retrospective comparative study.

Needs Based Assessment of Trauma Systems 2, is it ready for primetime? A natural experiment testing its reliability.

INTRODUCTION: Needs Based Assessment of Trauma Systems 2 (NBATS-2) attempts to predict the impact on patient volume and travel time for patients when a new trauma center (TC) is added to the system. The purpose of this study was to examine NBATS-2 predictive accuracy regarding expected volume and travel times of trauma patients at a newly designated TC and nearby legacy TCs when compared with actual data. METHODS: Needs Based Assessment of Trauma Systems predictive model for volume of trauma patients at the new TC was run based on 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of both state and National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB) patients per 100 TC beds. This was compared with the actual number of trauma patients from the State Discharge Data set before (2011-2012) and after (2016-2017) designation of the TC. Analysis was then augmented using the geographic information system (ArcGIS) spatial modeling to characterize median travel times for actual trauma patients, before and after designation of the TC. RESULTS: Both state and NTDB 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles resulted in significant overestimation of volume at the new TC in 2016. After another year of TC maturation (2017), overestimation decreased but was still present. The 25th percentile from state and NTDB data sets provided the most accurate predictions. For the legacy TCs, the model switched from under to overestimation as the state and NTDB percentiles increased. The geographic information system accurately showed patients traveling <40 minutes to a TC nearly doubled. CONCLUSION: Needs Based Assessment of Trauma Systems 2 provides an excellent template for state strategic planning; however, it overestimates new TC volume and under/overestimates volumes for legacy TCs depending on the state and NTDB percentiles used. This study shows that population density of the county in which the new or legacy TC is located should be considered when choosing the appropriate state or NTDB percentile. The geographic information system appropriately showed a decrease in trauma patient travel times after TC designation. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Care Management, level V.

Added Cost and Time Spent by Patients With History of Abuse in Florida Emergency Departments.

Interpersonal violence is known to lead to both short- and long-term health effects. Victims of sexual abuse tend to have higher healthcare costs and higher rates of physical and mental health issues than nonvictims. In this study, we investigate whether the comorbidity of mental illness and a personal history of adult physical and sexual abuse (HAPSA) results in higher healthcare costs and length of emergency department (ED) stay among Florida residents. A Negative Binomial and Log-Linear Regression Analysis suggest increased ED visit duration for those with a history of abuse, Hispanics, the uninsured, and those with multiple comorbidities. In addition, increased costs were found to be associated with White race, the uninsured, those with multiple comorbidities, and the facility type (for-profit hospitals).

Two novel resource-based metrics to quantify pediatric trauma severity based on probability of requiring critical care and anesthesia services.

BACKGROUND: Mortality-based metrics like the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) Injury Severity Score (ICISS) may underestimate burden of pediatric traumatic disease due to lower mortality rates in children. The purpose of this study was to develop and validate two resource-based severity of injury (SOI) measures, then compare these measures and the ICISS across a broad age spectrum of injured patients. METHODS: The ICISS and two novel SOI measures, termed ICD Critical Care Severity Score (ICASS) and ICD General Anesthesia Severity Score (IGASS), were derived from Florida state administrative 2012 to 2016 data and validated with 2017 data. The ICASS and IGASS predicted the need for critical care services and anesthesia services, respectively. Logistic regression was used to validate each SOI measure. Distributions of ICISS, ICASS, and IGASS were compared across pediatric (0-15 years), adult (16-64 years), and elderly (65-84 years) age groups. RESULTS: The derivation and validation cohorts consisted of 668,346 and 24,070 emergency admissions, respectively. On logistic regression, ICISS, ICASS, and IGASS were strongly predictive of observed mortality, critical care utilization, and anesthesia utilization, respectively (p < 0.001). The mean ICISS was 10.6 for pediatric and 19.0 for adult patients (ratio, 0.56), indicating that the predicted mortality risk in pediatric patients was slightly over half that of adults. In contrast, the mean ICASS for pediatric and adult patients was 50.2 and 53.2, respectively (ratio, 0.94); indicating predicted critical care utilization in pediatric patients was nearly the same as that of adults. The IGASS comparisons followed comparable patterns. CONCLUSION: When a mortality-based SOI measure is used, the severity of pediatric injury appears much lower than that of adults, but when resource-based measures are used, pediatric and adult burden of injury appear very similar. The ICASS and IGASS are novel and valid resource-based SOI measures that are easily calculated with administrative data. They may complement mortality-based measures in pediatric trauma. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III, prognostic and epidemiological study.

Inpatient and emergency department costs from sports injuries among youth aged 5-18 years.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the financial costs from sports injuries among inpatients and emergency department (ED) patients aged 5-18 with a focus on Medicaid patients. METHODS: Fixed-effects linear regression was used to assess the association of patient factors with cost of injury from sports. Florida Agency for Health Care Administration data from 2010 to 2014 were used, which included all inpatient and ED patients aged 5-18 years who had a sports injury. RESULTS: Over 5 years, sports injuries in Florida youth cost $24 million for inpatient care and $87 million for ED care. Youth averaged $6039 for an inpatient visit and $439 for an ED visit in costs from sports injuries. Sports injuries for Medicaid-insured youth cost $10.8 million for inpatient visits and $44.2 million for ED visits. CONCLUSION: Older athletes and males consistently have higher healthcare costs from sports. Baseball, basketball, bike riding, American football, roller-skating/skateboarding and soccer are sports with high costs for both ED patients and inpatients and would benefit from prevention programmes. Injuries from non-contact sport participants are few but can have high costs. These athletes could benefit from prevention programmes as well.

Risk factors for avoidable transfer to a pediatric trauma center among patients 2 years and older.

BACKGROUND: Effective and sustainable pediatric trauma care requires systems of regionalization and interfacility transfer. Avoidable transfer, also known as secondary overtriage, occurs when a patient is transferred to a regional trauma center after initial evaluation at another facility that is capable of providing definitive care. The purpose of this study was to identify risk factors for avoidable transfer among pediatric trauma patients in southwest Florida. METHODS: All pediatric trauma patients 2 years and older transferred from outlying hospitals to the emergency department of a single state-designated pediatric trauma center between 2009 and 2017 were obtained from the institutional registry. Transfers were classified as avoidable if the patient suffered only minor injuries (International Classification of Diseases-9th Rev. Injury Severity Score > 0.9), did not require invasive procedures or intensive care unit monitoring, and was discharged within 48 hours. Demographics and injury characteristics were compared for avoidable and nonavoidable transfers. Logistic regression was used to estimate the independent effects of age, sex, insurance type, mechanism of injury, diagnosis, within region versus out-of-region residence, suspected nonaccidental trauma, and abnormal Glasgow Coma Scale score on the risk of avoidable transfer. RESULTS: A total of 3,876 transfer patients met inclusion criteria, of whom 1,628 (42%) were classified as avoidable. Among avoidable transfers, 29% had minor head injuries (isolated skull fractures, concussions, and mild traumatic brain injury not otherwise specified), and 58% received neurosurgery consultation. On multivariable analysis, the strongest risk factors for avoidable transfer were diagnoses of isolated skull fracture or concussion. Suspected nonaccidental trauma was predictive of nonavoidable transfer. CONCLUSION: Among injured children 2 years and older, those with minor head injuries were at greatest risk for avoidable transfer. Many were transferred because of a perceived need for evaluation by a pediatric neurosurgeon. Future projects seeking to reduce avoidable transfers should focus on children with isolated skull fractures and concussions, in whom there is no suspicion of nonaccidental trauma. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Therapeutic/care management, level IV.

Association of mechanism of injury with overtriage of injured youth patients as trauma alerts.

BACKGROUND: Trauma alert criteria include physiologic and anatomic criteria, although field triage based on injury mechanism is common. This analysis evaluates injury mechanisms associated with pediatric trauma alert overtriage and estimates the effect of overtriage on patient care costs. METHODS: Florida's Agency for Health Care Administration inpatient and financial data for 2012-2014 were used. The study population included mildly and moderately injured patients aged 5-15 years brought to a trauma center and had an International Classification of Diseases-based Injury Severity Score survival probability ≥0.90, a recorded mechanism of injury, no surgery, a hospital stay less than 24 hours, and discharged to home. Overtriaged patients were those who had a trauma alert. Logistic regression was used to analyze the odds of overtriage relative to mechanism of injury and multivariable linear regression was used to analyze cost of overtriage. RESULTS: Twenty percent of patients were overtriaged; yet these patients accounted for 37.2% of total costs. The mechanisms of injury related to firearms (OR 11.99) and motor vehicle traffic (2.25) were positively associated with overtriage as a trauma alert. Inpatient costs were 131.8% higher for overtriaged patients. DISCUSSION: Firearm injuries and motor vehicle injuries can be associated with severe injuries. However, in this sample, a proportion of patients with this mechanism suffered minimal injuries. It is possible that further identifying relevant anatomic and physiologic criteria in youth may help decrease overtriage without compromising outcomes. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Economic, level IV.

Evaluation of the Georgia trauma system using the American College of Surgeons Needs Based Assessment of Trauma Systems tool.

BACKGROUND: The American College of Surgeons Needs Based Assessment of Trauma Systems (NBATS) tool was developed to help determine the optimal regional distribution of designated trauma centers (DTC). The objectives of our current study were to compare the current distribution of DTCs in Georgia with the recommended allocation as calculated by the NBATS tool and to see if the NBATS tool identified similar areas of need as defined by our previous analysis using the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification Injury Severity Score (ICISS). METHODS: Population counts were acquired from US Census publications. Transportation times were estimated using digitized roadmaps and patient zip codes. The number of severely injured patients was obtained from the Georgia Discharge Data System for 2010 to 2014. Severely injured patients were identified using two measures: ICISS<0.85 and Injury Severity Score >15. RESULTS: The Georgia trauma system includes 19 level I, II, or III adult DTCs. The NBATS guidelines recommend 21; however, the distribution differs from what exists in the state. The existing DTCs exactly matched the NBATS recommended number of level I, II, or III DTCs in 2 of 10 trauma service areas (TSAs), exceeded the number recommended in 3 of 10 TSAs, and was below the number recommended in 5 of 10 TSAs. Densely populated, or urban, areas tend to be associated with a higher number of existing centers compared with the NBATS recommendation. Other less densely populated TSAs are characterized by large rural expanses with a single urban core where a DTC is located. The identified areas of need were similar to the ones identified in the previous gap analysis of the state using the ICISS methodology. DISCUSSION: The tool appears to underestimate the number of centers needed in extensive and densely populated areas, but recommends additional centers in geographically expansive rural areas. The tool signifies a preliminary step in assessing the need for state-wide inpatient trauma center services. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Economic, level IV.

Association of Trauma Alert Response Charges With Volume and Hospital Ownership Type in Florida.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose was to analyze the association of trauma volume and hospital trauma center (TC) ownership type with trauma alert (TA) response charges, which are billed for activation of the trauma team to the emergency department (ED). METHODS: All Florida ED and inpatients who were billed a TA charge from 2012 to 2014 were included (62 974 observations). Multiple linear regression, controlling for patient and hospital factors, was used to identify associations between TA charges and trauma volume and hospital ownership type. Severity elasticity of trauma response charges was calculated by ownership type. RESULTS: Trauma volume had a significant, inverse relationship with TA charges. For-profit (FP) hospitals had significantly higher TA charges and government-owned hospitals had significantly lower TA charges relative to private not-for-profits. For-profit trauma response charges were inelastic to severity, that is, charges did not change with changes in severity. CONCLUSION: Higher TA charges were associated with lower patient volumes, as well as at FP TCs. Further, only FP TCs used alert charges that were not associated with injury severity. Adding new TCs that reduce volume at existing TCs is expected to increase TA charges, especially if they are FP TCs.

The Probability of Hospitalizations for Mild-to-Moderate Injuries by Trauma Center Ownership Type.

OBJECTIVE: To corroborate anecdotal evidence with systematic evidence of a lower threshold for admission among for-profit hospitals. DATA SOURCES: The study used Florida emergency department and hospital discharge datasets for 2012 to 2014. The treatment variable of interest was for-profit-designated trauma center status. The dependent variable indicated whether a patient with mild-to-moderate injuries was admitted after presenting as a trauma alert and then discharged to home. A separate analysis was conducted of discharges that had a 1-day length of stay. STUDY DESIGN: Generalized estimation equations with logistic distribution models were used to control for the confounding influences and developed for four groups of patients: ICISS = 1 (no probability of mortality), ICISS ≥ 0.99, ICISS ≥ 0.95, and ICISS ≥ 0.85 (zero to 15 percent probability of mortality, which includes all mild and moderate injury patients). PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: For the ICISS = 1 and ICISS ≥ 0.99 models, the centers' for-profit status was the most important predictor. In the ICISS ≥ 0.95 and ICISS ≥ 0.85 models, injury type played a more important role, but for-profit status remained important. For patients with a 1-day stay, for-profit status was associated with an even higher probability of hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: Considerable differences exist between for-profit and not-for-profit trauma centers concerning hospitalization among the study population, which may be explained by supplier-induced demand.

A Decade Evaluation of a State Trauma System: Has Access to Inpatient Trauma Care at Designated Trauma Centers Improved?

Recently, the trauma center component of the Georgia trauma system was evaluated demonstrating a 10 per cent probability of increased survival for severely injured patients treated at designated trauma centers (DTCs) versus nontrauma centers. The purpose of this study was to determine the effectiveness of a state trauma system to provide access to inpatient trauma care at DTCs for its residents. We reviewed 371,786 patients from the state's discharge database and identified 255,657 treated at either a DTC or a nontrauma center between 2003 and 2012. Injury severity was assigned using the International Classification Injury Severity Score method. Injury was categorized as mild, moderate, or severe. Patients were also categorized by age and injury type. Access improved over time in all severity levels, age groups, and injury types. Although elderly had the largest improvement in access, still only 70 per cent were treated at a DTC. During the study period, increases were noted for all age groups, injury severity levels, and types of injury. A closer examination of the injured elderly population is needed to determine the cause of lower utilization by this age group. Overall, the state's trauma system continues to mature by providing patients with increased access to treatment at DTCs.

Immature patients in a mature system: Regional analysis of Florida's pediatric trauma system.

BACKGROUND: The state of Florida's trauma system is organized into seven regions, two of which lack designated pediatric trauma centers. Injured children residing in these regions often require transfer out of their home region for definitive care. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of the current regionalization approach, focusing on variations between regions. METHODS: Using the Florida Agency for Health Care Administration database, we identified all trauma patients 15 years old or younger admitted between 2009 and 2014. Patients with high-risk injury (ICD-9 Injury Severity Score < 0.85) who did not receive definitive treatment at a pediatric trauma center (PTC) were considered undertriaged. Outcomes of interest included mortality and long-term disability. Patients who were definitively treated at a facility outside their home region, but who had low risk injuries (ICD-9 Injury Severity Score > 0.9), required no procedures or ICU monitoring, and were discharged within 48 hours, were considered to have received potentially avoidable out-of-region treatment. Regions were compared, and patients treated in-region were compared to those treated out-of-region. Regression models were used to adjust for covariates. RESULTS: Of 34,816 patients, 8% had high-risk injuries and the overall mortality rate was 1%. Risk-adjusted outcomes were generally similar across all regions. Regional rates of undertriage varied from 0.4% to 4.7% and were highest in regions lacking a PTC. Eleven percent of patients required definitive treatment outside their home region; these patients had higher hospital charges and stayed in the hospital 0.96 days longer (least-squares mean). Rates of potentially avoidable out-of-region treatment ranged from 7% to 12% in the two regions lacking a PTC. After adjustment for confounders, significant unexplained differences in potentially avoidable out-of-region treatment remained between these two regions (OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.6-2.6). CONCLUSIONS: Florida's regionalized pediatric trauma system performs effectively, with low undertriage and acceptable outcomes. Out-of-region treatment, an inevitable byproduct of the current regionalization approach, imposes a measurable burden on the treating facility and patient/family. Unexplained variations in potentially avoidable out-of-region treatment suggest improvements can be made in system efficiency. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Economic/decision study, level III.

The trauma ecosystem: The impact and economics of new trauma centers on a mature statewide trauma system.

INTRODUCTION: Florida serves as a model for the study of trauma system performance. Between 2010 and 2104, 5 new trauma centers were opened alongside 20 existing centers. The purpose of this study was to explore the impact of trauma system expansion on system triage performance and trauma center patients' profiles. METHODS: A statewide data set was queried for all injury-related discharges from adult acute care hospitals using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) codes for 2010 and 2014. The data set, inclusion criteria, and definitions of high-risk injury were chosen to match those used by the Florida Department of Health in its trauma registry. Hospitals were classified as existing Level I (E1) or Level II (E2) trauma centers and new E2 (N2) centers. RESULTS: Five N2 centers were established 11.6 to 85.3 miles from existing centers. Field and overall trauma system triage of high-risk patients was less accurate with increased overtriage and no change in undertriage. Annual volume at N2 centers increased but did not change at E1 and E2 centers. In 2014, Patients at E1 and E2 centers were slightly older and less severely injured, while those at N2 centers were substantially younger and more severely injured than in 2010. The injured patient-payer mix changed with a decrease in self-pay and commercial patients and an increase in government-sponsored patients at E1 and E2 centers and an increase in self-pay and commercial patients with a decrease in government-sponsored patients at N2 centers. CONCLUSION: Designation of new trauma centers in a mature system was associated with a change in established trauma center demographics and economics without an improvement in trauma system triage performance. These findings suggest that the health of an entire trauma system network must be considered in the design and implementation of a regional trauma system. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Therapeutic/care management study, level IV; epidemiological, level IV.

Budget Impact Analysis of Veterans Affairs Medical Foster Homes versus Community Living Centers.

The objectives were to determine whether and by what amounts the US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) use of Medical Foster Homes (MFH) rather than Community Living Centers (CLC) reduced budget impacts to the VA. This was a retrospective, matched, case-control study of veterans residing in MFH or CLC in the VA health care system from 2008 to 2012. Administrative data sets, nearest neighbor matching, generalized linear models, and a secondary analysis were used to capture and analyze budget impacts by veterans who used MFH or CLC exclusively in 2008-2012. Controls of 1483 veterans in CLC were matched to 203 cases of veterans in MFH. Use of MFH instead of CLC reduced budget impacts to the VA by at least $2645 per veteran per month. A secondary analysis of the data using different matching criteria and statistical methods produced similar results, demonstrating the robustness of the estimates of budget impact. When the average out-of-pocket payments made by MFH residents, not made by CLC residents, were included in the analysis, the net reduction of budget impact ranged from $145 to $2814 per veteran per month or a savings of $1740 to $33,768 per veteran per year. Even though outpatient costs of MFH are higher, much of the reduced budget impact of MFH use arises from lower inpatient or hospital costs. Reduced budget impacts on the VA system indicate that expansion of the MFH program may be cost-effective. Implications for further research are suggested.

Improving Prognostic Web Calculators: Violation of Preferential Risk Independence.

BACKGROUND: Web-based applications are available for prognostication of individual patients. These prognostic models were developed for groups of patients. No one is the average patient, and using these calculators to inform individual patients could provide misleading results. OBJECTIVE: This article gives an example of paradoxical results that may emerge when indices used for prognosis of the average person are used for care of an individual patient. METHODS: We calculated the expected mortality risks of stomach cancer and its associated comorbidities. Mortality risks were calculated using data from 140,699 Veterans Administration nursing home residents. RESULTS: On average, a patient with hypertension has a higher risk of mortality than one without hypertension. Surprisingly, among patients with lung cancer, hypertension is protective and reduces risk of mortality. This paradoxical result is explained by how group-level, average prognosis could mislead individual patients. In particular, average prognosis of lung cancer patients reflects the impact of various comorbidities that co-occur in lung cancer patients. The presence of hypertension, a relatively mild comorbidity of lung cancer, indicates that more serious comorbidities have not occurred. It is not that hypertension is protective; it is the absence of more serious comorbidities that is protective. The article shows how the presence of these anomalies can be checked through the mathematical concept of preferential risk independence. CONCLUSION: Instead of reporting average risk scores, web-based calculators may improve accuracy of predictions by reporting the unconfounded risks.

Correlates of Length of Stay and Boarding in Florida Emergency Departments for Patients With Psychiatric Diagnoses.

OBJECTIVE: Length of stay (LOS) and boarding in the emergency department (ED) for psychiatric patients have been the subject of concern, given the problems with crowding and excessive wait times in EDs. This investigation examined correlates of LOS and boarding in Florida EDs for patients presenting with psychiatric complaints from 2010 to 2013. METHODS: Utilizing the Florida ED discharge database, the authors examined the association of LOS and boarding with hospital and encounter factors for adult patients presenting with a primary psychiatric diagnosis (N=597,541). RESULTS: The mean LOS was 7.77 hours. Anxiety disorders were the most frequent psychiatric complaint and were associated with the lowest mean LOS compared with other diagnoses (p<.05). Patient encounters resulting in a presentation of intentional self-harm and suicidality or schizophrenia were associated with significantly longer stays compared with other psychiatric diagnoses. Commercial insurance was associated with the shortest average LOS. African Americans, Hispanics, and patients age 45 and older were associated with a longer average LOS. Smaller hospital size, for-profit ownership, and rural designation were associated with a shorter average LOS. Teaching status was not associated with LOS. Furthermore, 73% of encounters resulting in transfers qualified as episodes of boarding (a stay of more than six or more hours in the ED). CONCLUSIONS: Extended LOS was endemic for psychiatric patients in Florida EDs.